CrossborderInforma: Shifting Leadership? Trends in Mexico’s Maquiladora/IMMEX Industry

Download: PDF briefing on 2010 Mexico maquiladora/IMMEX trends

Crossborder Group has just completed an analysis of the most-recent INEGI data for Mexico’s maquiladora/IMMEX industry — some findings of which are presented at right in our CrossborderInforma briefing (download here, or by clicking on the image [PDF, 175kb]). Beyond the fact that Mexico’s IMMEX companies are continuing their rebound from the 2008-2009 recession — ending 2010 with a respectable 1.81 million employees (9.1% growth year-over-year compared to December 2009) — several other findings stand out:

• Border states captured only 63% of the nearly 165,000 jobs created in the maquiladora/IMMEX sectors in 2010;
• Nuevo León has surpassed Baja California for second-place in terms of total IMMEX employees (despite the negative security image, Chihuahua remains in first-place); and…

Mexican Peso Strengthening – Lowest US$ Exchange Rate in 2+ Years

The Mexican peso has reached its strongest exchange rate against the U.S. dollar since October 2008 — 12.07 pesos to US$1 — benefiting some in the domestic market, while bringing back some concerns about a “Super Peso” for those that are involved with (or depend upon) cash inflows from the United States.

Possible Return of the Super Peso in 2011?

As seen in the graph at right (developed by Crossborder Group and based on historic Banco de México peso exchange rate data [showing the official rate to resolve currency obligations]), the peso was last at these levels in early-October, 2008, during a time in which the peso depreciated by 20-30% from 10 pesos per US$1.

A variety of factors appear to be creating this peso-strengthening trend:  a still-slow U.S. economic recovery, concerns about certain European markets (and the stability of the Euro), and the contrasting relative fiscal/economic stability in Mexico.  In fact, recent efforts by the Calderon Administration to increase foreign reserves to over US$113 billion and secure a US$73 billion two-year line of credit from the IMF, while maintaining Government debt to just over 2% of GDP, will likely contribute to some continued strengthening of the peso for at least the first half of 2011.

A new Super Peso could lead to increasing costs for international visitors to Mexico, as well as a higher cost for production in the foreign-dominated IMMEX/maquiladora industry — potentially undermining some of Mexico’s competitive strength internationally.  Crossborder Group will continue to track this issue throughout 2011, and can provide insights into potential impacts on your market or industry — contact us at answers[at]crossborderbusiness.com for more information.

Crossborder’s Research Data Highlighted in Article

We must admit:  it’s nice when your work gets some recognition — so it was a real treat for our Mexico market research staff to see data from some recent industry research being used in by the San Diego Union Tribune in a recent article (“Tijuana group aims to change city’s image” – August 8, 2010, by Sandra Dibble).

Tijuana Employment by Sectors - Data by Crossborder Group

While the print edition included two graphics (including some data we provided on the number of IMMEX/maquiladora firms in major Mexican cities), the online edition included the graph at right — which shows approximate employment numbers for various tech clusters in Tijuana based on research our team did over the last few months (including medical devices, aerospace, and others).

One piece of new information (which didn’t really get covered in the article) was our estimate of Call Center employment in Tijuana.  This is an emerging industry not just in Tijuana, but other parts of Mexico as well — and one that has much potential for growth (particularly given the bilingual nature of the US-Mexico border States). Look for more research from Crossborder Group on this topic in the coming months….

Crossborder Insights: After Recession Pitstop, Is Mexico’s Auto Industry Racing Ahead?

New data from several major automotive manufacturers signals a recovery, and a shift toward expansion and increased foreign direct investment into Mexico’s automotive industry.

Mexico Automotive Brief - Download PDF Here

Mexico’s automotive sector experienced a steep decline in production and investment in 2009 due to the global economic downturn.  In fact, by January of 2009, production of cars and light trucks had fallen to less than half of January 2008’s levels — a trend which continued throughout most of 2009.  However, several major OEM’s have recently announced plans for production or supplier expansions in Mexico over next few years.

Research and analysis conducted by Crossborder Group (in PDF at right) shows that

Crossborder Insights: Mexico’s IMMEX Industry (Maquiladora/PITEX): On the Rebound?

New data released in mid-February shows Mexico’s IMMEX (“maquiladora”) industry employment was on the increase, adding an average of just over 14,000 jobs each month since July 2009. The IMMEX industry (the new, regulatory term for what is widely considered the “maquiladora industry”, covering both former “maquiladora” operations and “PITEX” companies) has been hard hit by the U.S. economic downturn, losing nearly 365,000 jobs in this sector from a near peak in November 2007 to its low-point of 1.58 million employees in July, 2009. Some key findings are presented in our downloadable Crossborder Insights brief…[read more]